Wednesday, February 27, 2013

An analysis of the state of affairs in Ireland from a bar stool somewhere in Dublin. Part A.


I have a friend who is gifted at summing up things political/economic and what not in Ireland.
He has said I may share his ´meanderings` as he calls it.

Reading this, I think you will, like I did, quickly grasp the personal consequences of the bank bail out in Ireland. Not always light reading, but it is easy to understand.  
I don´t presume to think I can add anything to Mr. Mystery´s thoughts. This is too good to mess with, so I don´t add any of my own words.   Part b. comes later.

Do let me know if you have any comments.

And enjoy your cup of tea -  you will need it after reading Mystery Man´s opinion!
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….Yes, was following the 'end' of the Anglo-Irish debacle last week and in two minds about it all.  I saw a reference to the fact that the Irish are covering about 42% of all European bad banking debt.  The gas thing is that if we simply let it go back in 2008, and said that private debt is not, nor should it ever be 'sovereign debt', then the German and French banks that lent to the Irish Banks in the first case, would have been in a very sticky position, not least with their own compatriot tax-payers.  Would the Germans/French still have agreed that 'private bank debt' should become 'sovereign debt'.  Highly questionable!

On the face of it, it seems that last week's deal was good, in that it buys us time here in Ireland.  Apparently, we won't have to borrow E20 billions in the next ten years to cover the Anglo debt... this will now be spread out over 40 years - in the bulk, 27 years - at a lower rate of interest 3% as opposed to 8%.  It means though that our children and grandchildren will still be paying for this folly.  Having said that, to have stayed on the original 8%/10 year path was simply not sustainable... Ireland too, like Greece, would have defaulted and where would our children/grandchildren be then?  Having said all that though, I look at Iceland, where they simply let their banks go bust - because they're not in the EU or part of the Euro - and they're doing fine right now.  What madness betook our politicians... Brian Cowen/Brian Lenihan et al?  I will go to my grave without ever fully understanding what happened.

I think that in macro terms, it's good for us... but in micro terms I'm not sure that we shall notice any difference.  Then again, perhaps the water charges and the property taxes will not be as high, now that we've had this change.  We shall never truly know.

Having said all that, I'm also very cautious about adopting a sense of victim hood... We've had enough of that in our country too - And it looks like that's not going to disappear anytime soon, what with the Magdalena laundries etc.  There's an awful lot of 'look what they've done to us' with 'they' ranging from the English, to the British, from the Church to the Banks, from the priests to the nuns, from the absentee landlords to the absentee property developers, from crooked politicians to immoral bishops.  There's very little about what we've actually done to ourselves! Honestly though Ro, is there anything - since Ireland won its independence - that Ireland can be genuinely proud of?  We've one of the most unequal societies in Europe - our choice as we've consistently voted in FF/FG/PDs through out the years - even the 'good' years.  Think about what 'unequal' actually means and it is very quickly, very sobering!!  What of our kinship with each other?  I think that we've a very selfish group of people, no?

Well, at least I've got the start of an Irish stew in the making... and a cup of broth right here beside me to start with!  These are the small things that we need to keep remembering... and valuing!!!  I can hear the pot 'bubbling away'.  Genuinely, that and the broth are making me happy right now

Anyhow, I'm off.  I'm going to dip in to the pot again for some more broth.  Mmm, good, even if I say so myself.  Anyhow, so long, take care and say a prayer that the Irish will at last wake up and value each other like ordinary decent Europeans do elsewhere!
Lots of love to you Ro... and to H. too. 

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